Analysis: A Window Of Opportunity Coming Up, But More Work Ahead
Okay, women’s college basketball, you can come out again. It’s a little safer now.
The basketball Tsunami that was Connecticut’s 6-4 Breanna Stewart, the nation’s top overall player the past three years, is gone. So is Moriah Jefferson, the nation’s best point guard. So is Morgan Tuck, the ideal 6-2 complement to Stewart, and a potential top 3-to-5 WNBA pick as well.
The trio led the Huskies to an unprecedented four consecutive national titles while becoming the top current dynasty in any collegiate or professional sport. Since the start of the 2013 NCAA Tournament, UConn posted a 122-1 ledger — winning every game by at least 10 points — and was victorious in each of its last 75.
Coach Geno Auriemma is the John Wooden of women’s basketball, and he now has more championship rings (11) than fingers or thumbs to put them on. He has been invincible in championship settings, going 11-0 in title games (Wooden was 10-0). As long as Auriemma remains on the sidelines, the road to the national title still goes through Stoors, Conn.
In 2016-17, though, and 2017-18 as well, the path might should be a little more navigable for Notre Dame head coach Muffet McGraw’s program to achieve the elusive second national title they’ve hunted since the start of the 2001-02 campaign.
During the same past four years, Notre Dame is a phenomenal 141-8 (.946 winning percentage) with four outright league titles in the Big East or ACC. It also is 138-3 the last four years versus teams not named UConn, establishing itself as the nation’s second-best program.
The combination of the Huskies losing their three mainstays (while also signing only one player), plus Notre Dame returning five of its top six scorers and adding two different National Player of the Year recruits, provides a little more promising window of hope compared to the last four when there was a tacit “learned helplessness” in women’s college basketball.
Brianna Turner The Centerpiece
Barring an early Jewell Loyd-like WNBA defection by current sophomore post and second-team AP All-American Brianna Turner after the 2016-17 season, McGraw might have her two most individually talented and deepest Notre Dame teams in her three decades of coaching in the coming two years.
When Loyd suddenly bolted last spring after her junior campaign, and starter/captain Taya Reimer left the program in December, popular opinion held that the youth-laden Irish would be a “year away” from vying for the national title, or after Connecticut graduates Stewart, Tuck and Jefferson.
There will be eight McDonald’s All-Americans on the Irish roster next year (including incoming 6-2 Erin Boley and 5-11 Jackie Young) compared to UConn’s four (including incoming 5-6 point guard Crystal Dangerfield).
The 6-3 All-America Turner missed nearly a dozen games the past two Decembers with a right shoulder problem (requiring a harness) that was operated on earlier this month. She will undergo four-to-six months of rehab, which will limit her off-court work. With Turner, the Irish are bona fide championship contenders. Without her, they might not have enough post presence to get beyond the Elite Eight.
“She knew she had to have surgery,” McGraw said. “The question was whether she was going to try to get through the year and have it after the season, or did she want to have it immediately when it happened.”
McGraw believes the shoulder problems inhibited Turner to a degree.
“I think she would say not, but at times you’re a little more protective on the right side,” McGraw said. “It definitely took some time for her to be more willing to use it.”
Through her first two seasons, the 2014 Gatorade National Player of the Year has been a soft-spoken figure and comfortable staying in the background. That must change now that she will be a junior. In the Sweet 16 upset loss to Stanford she was AWOL in the first half while going 0-for-4 from the floor. When the adrenaline and intensity kicked in after the intermission, she finished with 16 points and 10 rebounds.
Elite programs are led by marquee figures such as a Stewart, a Maya Moore or a Diana Taurasi at UConn, and Turner has to embrace that leadership mantle to become the assertive National Player of the Year candidate.
“Junior year is usually the year you see the big jump,” McGraw said. “I thought in the last 10 games or so she changed her mind-set a little bit. She was a lot more aggressive, demanding the ball. We were able to get it to her on most occasions.
“We want her to be a dominant presence. I think she is defensively, but we would like that on both ends and would like her to do a little bit more.”
Deeper Than Ever
Beyond Turner, the Irish easily could have a 10-player rotation.
Point guard Lindsay Allen has started every game the past three seasons and received some All-America notice the past two. Her effectiveness might be buoyed with the addition of 2015 Miss Basketball in Indiana, Ali Patberg, who also was MaxPreps 2015 National Player of the Year.
Patberg suffered an ACL tear in October that sidelined her the duration of the season, and she had setbacks in rehabilitation that won’t allow her to come back to full strength until perhaps the fall. Her presence might allow Allen to play the two guard on occasion.
“Her leadership, and just her basketball IQ — she is the kind of floor general that will be bumping people around a little bit, getting them in the right spots,” said McGraw of Patberg. “She really understands the game and I think she can take some pressure off Lindsay. This year with the foul trouble Lindsay got into, it would have been great to have [Patberg] ready. There will be a learning curve … I was hoping this summer she could be back in working at it.”
Patberg actually might be just the third best player in her class. Guards Arike Ogunbowale and Marina Mabrey provided instant offense off the bench, finishing as the third- and fourth-leading scorers on the team with 11.4 and 10.7 averages, respectively. When their defense and assist-to-turnover rates improve, they could be future All-America candidates.
“Their confidence, their fearless attitude, the willingness to just come in and make something happen was really good,” said McGraw of the duo that helped replace the scoring punch lost with Loyd and Reimer.
Turner’s classmate, 6-2 forward Kathryn Westbeld, started all 33 games she was available for, finishing with 7.9 points and 5.6 rebounds per game.
“She’s the X-Factor,” McGraw said. “We’d like to see her play a much bigger role next year.”
Sophomore guard Mychal Johnson and junior forward Kristina Nelson had their moments, but their playing time next season will be challenged with the return of Patberg and the enrollment of freshmen Young (the Naismith Player of the Year and all-time leading scorer in Indiana girls or boys high school history) and Boley (the Gatorade National Player of the Year, like Turner in 2014 and Skylar Diggins in 2009). They likely will have the roles Ogunbowale and Mabrey had this past season, if not more.
Other Powers To Watch
While Connecticut is expected to come back to the pack some next season, there are about six-to-10 programs other than Notre Dame that could legitimately challenge for the 2017 national title.
Look for Baylor to be the preseason No. 1 with its combination of excellent size (where Notre Dame is most lacking), veteran backcourt play and overall depth. The Bears’ front line includes 6-7 Kalani Brown and 6-4 Beatrice Mompremier, who as freshmen combined for 16.5 points and 10.4 rebounds per game. Brown was the No. 1 center recruit last year and Baylor also landed the No. 1 post player this year in 6-4 Lauren Cox, Notre Dame’s top target at the position. Baylor’s starting backcourt with Nina Davis (16.3 points per game) and Duke transfer Alexis Jones (15.0 points) probably will be deemed the best in the nation.
Stanford, didn’t start a senior this year while knocking off Notre Dame. UCLA had the nation’s No. 1 class three years ago and lost in overtime this past season to the Irish. South Carolina, Tennessee, Louisville, Maryland also have recruited at or near Notre Dame’s level.
There were more upsets in the women’s tourney this season, with three of the Final Four participants seeded fourth through seventh. Maybe the best is still to come talent wise for the Irish — but the path to return to the Final Four, as it did five straight years from 2011-15, also could be more arduous with the improving depth in the women's game.
“We’ll still be fairly young, and so much depends on just one game,” McGraw said. “We played great for 32 games and then had one bad game defensively — and unfortunately it was the last one. Anything can happen in one game, we saw that more than ever in the NCAA Tournament, and I think it’s going to continue that way the next few years.
“It’s a good thing for women’s basketball, but we’ve got a lot of work to do.”