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Brian Kelly Addresses Notre Dame's Red-Zone Offense

Quarterback DeShone Kizer and the offense will be expected to be more productive in the red zone.
Quarterback DeShone Kizer and the offense will be expected to be more productive in the red zone.

Per the NCAA Football Statistics, no single area in head coach Brian Kelly’s first six seasons at Notre Dame has been more consistently subpar than red-zone efficiency on offense.

Generally it has ranked about 70th or lower in the country each year, including 88th in in 2015 with a .811 scoring percentage. Of its 53 opportunities once it reached the opponent’s 20 (or inside it), the Fighting Irish scored 31 touchdowns (18 rushing and 13 passing), 12 field goals, and finished with no points 10 times. This issue particularly became conspicuous in the two heartbreaking two-point losses to Clemson (24-22) and Stanford (38-36) during the 10-2 regular season.

In the loss at Clemson, the Irish failed to score on one of their three red-zone chances — while the Tigers scored all three times (two touchdowns and a field goal).

In the defeat at Stanford, Notre Dame had to settle for field goals on three of its four red-zone possessions — while the Cardinal scored touchdowns on all five of its chances.

Notre Dame’s Playoff hopes also took a hit late in the season when seven red-zone opportunity in the 19-16 win versus the Eagles included zero points three times and settling for field goals two other times. That meant the Irish reached the goal line twice in seven chances. Part of the issue was that it was sophomore quarterback DeShone Kizer’s first seasons as a starter.

“He saw some things for the first time,” said Kelly of Kizer. “The red zone requires an efficiency relative to throwing the football or running the ball and what we've tried to do a little bit later in the year that was more effective was running the football. We turned the ball over against BC, but we were trying to run the ball later in the year to help our quarterback.

“We were effective and efficient against Stanford trying to run the ball (35 carries, 299 yards, a whopping 8.5 yards per carry). When we threw it, we weren't. Red zone efficiency is running the football and having a quarterback who is experienced down in that zone. It's not really scheme down there as much as quick decisions, being efficient, accurate and having a really good running game.”

Is the running game really the end-all, be-all to superior red-zone efficiency?

Then how does that explain 12-1 Ohio State with Ezekiel Elliott finishing 81st last year in red-zone offense (.825), and national champion Alabama with Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry placing 82nd (.823)?

Moreover, Notre Dame’s touchdown percentage in the red zone of .585 (31 of 53) was better than Alabama’s .556 (35 of 63). That Irish figure in 2015 was similar to the one in 2012 when Kelly’s troops made it to the BCS Championship game: 29 touchdowns (19 rushing, 10 passing) in 48 red-zone chances for a .604 percentage.

There is no denying this is an area Notre Dame needs to improve, but as Alabama and Ohio State show, there is more that goes into this than just raw data. Far and away the major problem for Notre Dame in the red zone has been that its 14 turnovers inside the opponent’s 20-yard line the past two years has led the nation.

Even Stanford, with Christian McCaffrey as its dominant runner, scored four of its five red-zone touchdowns against Notre Dame via the pass. It didn’t hurt that Kevin Hogan was a savvy fourth-year starting quarterback for the Cardinal.

Kelly’s argument that a great running game aids red-zone touchdowns has merit when you look at Navy finishing No. 1 nationally last year in red-zone efficiency with a .948 percentage (55 scores on 58 chances). More notable was that 44 of its 55 opportunities resulted in touchdowns — a phenomenal .800 percentage. Oh, and 42 of those 44 scores were via the ground game.

Yet … finishing tied for No. 2 in red-zone offense was Mike Leach’s ultra pass happy Washington State attack, which scored on 52 of its 55 red-zone opportunities. It scored touchdowns 36 times — with only seven coming on the ground.

As Mark Twain once noted about how statistics can be manipulated into the greatest of all lies, teams with six or seven losses in 2015 such as Kansas State finished second, sixth (Penn State), 11th (Nebraska) or 13th (Auburn) in red-zone offense. Even 4-8 Syracuse was eighth. That’s in part because the Orange reached the red zone only 39 times. Conversely, Notre Dame scored more than a dozen touchdowns on 50-plus-yard plays — and many other explosives from 35-or-more yards away.

Make no mistake, Kelly and Co., are cognizant of needing better touchdown production in the red zone. However, the answers go beyond whether a team should run for it or pass for it. It begins with not leading the nation the past two years in red-zone turnovers.

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