Draft Analyst Explains Why He Expects Jaylon Smith To Be A First-Round Pick
In his latest mock draft, DraftCountdown.com analyst Scott Wright projects former Irish linebacker Jaylon Smith to be selected No. 24 overall in the first round by the Cincinnati Bengals.
Just a little more than two months ago, Smith was an obvious first-round selection and even rose to the top five in some projections. A devastating knee injury suffered in the Fiesta Bowl loss to Ohio State Jan. 1 has, however, changed the entire outlook for the Fort Wayne, Ind., native.
Several analysts — including ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr., CBS’ Rob Rang and Dane Brugler, and Sports Illustrated’s Chris Burke — don’t even have Smith in the first round of their current mock drafts.
At the NFL Combine late last month, Smith alluded to nerve damage that makes the injury — and, more important to NFL organizations, his recovery — even more uncertain.
An early April medical evaluation will be critical for Smith prior to the NFL Draft, which begins April 28.
“When I did my first mock draft [in January after Smith’s injury], I was a little more optimistic and even at that time I considered it to be a best case scenario — but I had him No. 6 to the Baltimore Ravens,” Wright said. “Based on kind of the negative feeling coming out of the Scouting Combine in terms of the medical, it’s going to be too risky for someone to take a chance on him in the top half of the first round.
“Most teams don’t have the luxury of redshirting a top-15 pick for half of a season or maybe even the entire rookie season. I do still think he’s got a chance to go in the first round.”
Wright said the Bengals have shown a willingness in the past to draft players that might not even be available during their rookie season.
“Part of it is they did something very similar a year ago with [former Texas A&M offensive lineman] Cedric Ogbuehi, when they took him in the first round at the same general range in the early 20s,” Wright said. “He hurt his knee in the bowl game and maybe wasn’t going to quite be ready, but they sat him for the first half of his rookie year and they’re grooming him to be a replacement for Andrew Whitworth. They’re a team that has the luxury of being able to do that because they’re relatively well stocked across the board. They don’t have a bunch of glaring needs.
“I think another team in the first round that could maybe do that is the Minnesota Vikings. I think they need to find a replacement for [linebacker] Chad Greenway, whether it be this year or next. I think that could be an option. I have a hard time seeing Jaylon Smith fall out of the first round completely. I think there’s going to be one team that’s going to be patient and wait for the big payout. He’s certainly a better prospect than Ogbuehi was last year.”
Notre Dame has not had a player taken in the top 10 of the NFL Draft since Bryant Young went seventh overall to the San Francisco 49ers in 1994. With Smith’s injury, it looks like offensive tackle Ronnie Stanley might offer the Irish their best chance to end that streak.