Hoops Preview: Notre Dame vs. NC State
NOTRE DAME (19-10, 10-7 ACC) VS. NC STATE (15-15, 5-12 ACC)
Where: Purcell Pavilion in Notre Dame, Ind.
Rankings: Neither teams are ranked in the polls.
Time/TV: 12 p.m. ET on CBS.
Last Meeting: This is the 10th meeting between the two programs, with Notre Dame leading 5-4 in the series. The Irish won the last meeting 81-78 at Raleigh on Jan. 25, 2015.
Notre Dame Notes
The Irish are coming off a 68-50 home destruction at the hands of Miami on March 2, in a game that by all accounts was maybe over as early as halftime. The Hurricanes utilized 12-0 and 21-3 runs at the start to build a lead that proved insurmountable, and seemingly crushed Notre Dame's spirit for a comeback in just the opening minutes.
It was the first time in 68 games that Mike Brey's squad had lost back-to-back games; a streak that dated back to the end of the 2013-14' season. Additionally, it finished as Notre Dame's least-efficient offensive game of the season with just .878 points per possession.
That mark replaced the one set just the game prior, a .883 points per possession performance at Florida State on Feb. 27. The late struggles have dropped the Irish down to 39th nationally on Kenpom.com; their lowest ranking of the season.
Certainly, it's not an ideal time for Brey's crew to be playing their worst ball of the year. ESPN's Bracketology on March 4 dropped the Irish from a No. 6 seed to a No. 7 seed, with a hypothetical matchup against No. 10-seeded St. Mary's - a squad that with the way things are trending for Notre Dame, actually ranks ahead of the Irish on Kenpom at 34th nationally.
The staff knows they need to get the ship turned around quickly, or their current trajectory leads to a very early postseason exit. They hope that turning point starts against NC State on Saturday at home, with the rallying cry around sending their two seniors - forwards Zach Auguste and A.J. Burgett - out on Senior Day with a big win.
"Given where we are and they have an explosive guy in [Cat] Barber, we've got our hands full," Brey said. "I expect every league game to be hard for us; when they're not hard I'm surprised.
"You've got a guy that can get 30 - how do we defend him? Who defends him? It can't just be one guy. They've got some size on that frontline still and they can pound you on the backboard. The kid [Maverick] Rowan who won the game for them [against Boston College], he's playing well and shooting well. They've probably been snakebitten by the injury bug more than any team in the league."
Demetrius Jackson — Leading the team in scoring (15.9 points), assists (4.9) and steals (1.3) per game.
Steve Vasturia — Averaging a team-high 36.1 minutes per game.
V.J. Beachem — Has made 67 of 158 three-point attempts (42.4 percent) this season.
Bonzie Colson — Ranked as Notre Dame’s most efficient offensive starter of the season thus far on KenPom.com.
Zach Auguste — Averaging a double-double with 14.2 points and 10.4 rebounds per game.
NC State Overview
The Wolfpack survived a surprisingly nailbiting 73-72 home win over Boston College, who fell to 0-17 in conference play with the loss. NC State needed a layup from freshman Maverick Rowan with :01 second remaining on the clock to secure the win.
Despite their 5-12 overall conference record, they've managed to notch a few impressive ACC wins this season, including an 85-69 home win over Miami on Jan. 30 and a 78-61 win at Pittsburgh on Jan. 19.
However, overall they're 1-7 in conference road games in 2016, with Saturday's tilt at Notre Dame approaching as their regular season finale.
They rank 81st nationally on Kenpom.com, which puts them in the range of comparison to a few other Notre Dame opponents including Virginia Tech (86th) and Stony Brook (87th).
They check in at 37th in the country in offensive efficiency, led by the efforts of junior Cat Barber. The 6-2, 190-pound guard takes 29.4 percent of the team's shots when he's in the game, which is quite often - his 95.8 percent of game minutes played are the second-most in the country. Barber's also great at drawing fouls and getting to the free throw line, and he shoots 86.7 percent from the charity stripe. They also do a great job on the offensive glass.
The other side of the ball is what's holding the Wolfpack back this season, as they rank 169th nationally in defensive efficiency. They're great at not putting opponents on the free throw line, but are otherwise mediocre at both protecting the glass and holding teams to low shooting percentages, and really struggle in forcing turnovers.
Outlook
As poorly as Notre Dame has played in recent games, this is a good opportunity for them to try and get back on the right track. Allowing NC State to end its regular season with just its second conference road win of the year would sound off some ringing alarms for the Irish heading into the postseason.
Prediction: Notre Dame 75, NC State 70.
Vegas Spread: Notre Dame by 8.