Hoops Preview: Notre Dame vs. No. 19 Duke
NOTRE DAME (20-10, 11-7 ACC) VS. DUKE (23-9, 11-7 ACC)
Where: Verizon Center in Washington, D.C.
Rankings: Duke is ranked No. 19 in the Associated Press poll.
Time/TV: 2 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Last Meeting: This is the 27th matchup between the two programs. Duke leads the all-time series 20-8, but the Irish won the last meeting 95-91 Jan. 16 in Durham, N.C.
Notre Dame Notes
The Irish are coming off an 89-75 home win over North Carolina State March 5, a game in which they pulled away and controlled almost all of the second half.
Head coach Mike Brey shook things up a bit after the Irish struggled mightily in a pair of losses — 77-56 loss at Florida State Feb. 27 and 68-50 at home versus Miami March 2 — having his squad push the pace in transition, getting into their sets quicker and even score a few baskets on the break.
The adjustment worked, at least for the single game. The Irish bounced back from the season-worst 50-point performance against Miami to post one of their best season totals with 89 points, and shifted from a season-low 57 possessions against the Hurricanes to 72 against the Wolfpack — their second-highest mark of the year.
Interestingly, Notre Dame’s first game against Duke was only a slightly lower 70 possessions, and that day was the most efficient outing of the year for the Irish. Sophomore forward Bonzie Colson scored 31 points off the bench, spearheading the Irish to a 95-91 win, which was their first at Cameron Indoor Stadium in school history.
There’s also the recent series history to note. Notre Dame has won four of its last five matchups against Duke, although the lone loss was a 90-60 blowout at Cameron Indoor on Feb. 7, 2015.
“It’s not staggering given what you did last year and what we did against them in the regular season,” said Brey, on being on the same side of the bracket as Duke and UNC for the ACC Tournament. “Anytime we’ve been able to have success against those two programs — and we’ve had a lot of it — that has been just great credibility for us and the league nationally.”
Demetrius Jackson — Leads the Irish in scoring (15.9 points per game), assists (5.0 per game) and steals (1.3 per game).
Steve Vasturia — Averaging a team-high 36.2 minutes per game.
V.J. Beachem — Has made 69 of 163 three-point attempts (42.3 percent) this season.
Bonzie Colson — Rated as Notre Dame’s most efficient offensive starter this year.
Zach Auguste — Averaging a double-double on the season.
Duke Overview
The Blue Devils are coming off a 92-89 win over North Carolina State March 9 in the second round of the ACC Tournament. The Wolfpack had defeated Wake Forest the day before, and were noticeably gassed for a large portion of the second half against Duke, but head coach Mike Krzyzewski’s squad could not put their foot down to pull away by a large margin.
They’re not playing as balanced on both ends of the floor as they were the first time they faced the Irish. Entering the Jan. 16 matchup, the Blue Devils ranked fourth nationally in offensive efficiency and 60th in the country in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom.com.
That potent offense is still there, but the defense has tumbled to just 112th nationally. You didn’t need stats or efficiency rankings to see evidence of that in the three-point win over the Wolfpack — really, neither side played much defense.
Offensively the Devils excel at not turning the ball over, ranking fifth nationally in turnover rate. They also shoot the ball well, checking in at 28th in the country with a 54.1 effective field goal percentage.
Sophomore guard Grayson Allen ranks No. 9 nationally in KenPom.com’s MVP category, averaging 21.5 points, 4.5 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game. They’re also led by freshman forward Brandon Ingram (16.7 points per contest), who some experts think could potentially overtake LSU freshman Ben Simmons as the No. 1 overall pick in the 2016 NBA Draft.
Defensively the Blue Devils are most vulnerable on the glass, ranking 321st nationally in defensive rebounding rate. Zach Auguste, Bonzie Colson and crew pounding the boards could be a key.
Outlook
Duke could not put the Wolfpack away on Wednesday, while the Irish just got done blowing them out March 5. However, that game for Notre Dame was at home, and the Wolfpack were playing for their postseason lives against Duke.
The Blue Devils looked visibly frustrated at times in Wednesday’s three-point win. They had to play a full 40 minutes and now face a quick 24-hour turnaround to take on the Irish.
However, Duke is still — well, Duke. And they have to be tired of losing to Notre Dame.
Given that this seems like it could be little more than a coin flip either way — why not? I’ll roll with the Irish.
Prediction: Notre Dame 82, Duke 80
Vegas Spread: Duke by 2.