NCAA Tournament Preview: Notre Dame Vs. Stephen F. Austin
NOTRE DAME (22-11) VS. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (28-5)
Where: The Barclays Center in Brooklyn, N.Y.
Rankings: Neither teams are ranked.
Time/TV: 2:40 p.m. ET on CBS.
Series History: This will be the first matchup between the two teams.
Notre Dame Notes
The Irish are coming off a 70-63 win over Michigan March 18 in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament.
Notre Dame trailed 41-29 at halftime after very little went their way. Mike Brey’s squad knew it had to cut back on turnovers from its prior two games and slow down Michigan's three-point shooting, among other keys.
His team committed 10 first-half turnovers, however, and allowed the Wolverines to shoot 7 of 14 from three-point range. Things certainly felt bleak for the team from South Bend.
Renewed energy following a rousing halftime speech from Brey engineered a 5-0 run to start the second period, spearheaded by a bucket and a three-point make from junior guard Steve Vasturia.
The Irish also went to a man-to-man defense, contesting Michigan’s threes much better than the prior half.
That defensive effort and a night junior forward V.J. Beachem will never forget — 7-of-7 shooting, including 4 of 4 on threes, for 18 points — carried Notre Dame to the second-half comeback. The Irish lowered the second-half turnovers to six, and Michigan made just 3 of 13 threes in the second half.
Overall, it wasn’t quite the level of play we saw from the Irish during their early February stretch when they beat UNC, Clemson on the road and Louisville all in one week. But it was a step forward from their most recent contests, when they dropped four of seven games.
Now they’ll face a Stephen F. Austin team that won all 18 of its regular season conference games, and by an average of 22 points per game.
“I know Coach [Brad] Underwood,” Brey said of the Lumberjacks’ leader. “We’re both Under Armour guys so we spent time together at a couple of Under Armour events, and he was trying to get me to play him and I said no way.
“But now I’ve got to play him no matter what. He did a terrific job. All I know is West Virginia had 22 turnovers, and we’ve been hitting the concession stand the last two weeks. So we’d better be great with the ball. They’re a tough bunch. I was impressed. I watched before the game. They have a great toughness about them. This is an ACC game.
“Tonight [against Michigan] was an ACC game. We’ve got another ACC level game on Sunday.”
Stephen F. Austin Notes
The Lumberjacks are coming off a 70-56 upset over No. 3-seeded West Virginia on Friday night.
That game wasn’t your “out of the blue” major upset, say like when a lower seeded team gets incredibly hot from three and lucks into a victory.
Stephen F. Austin led 31-28 at halftime, then pulled away from the Mountaineers 39-28 in the second period. The closing minutes of the game reminded one of a blowout — just with the team you wouldn’t expect winning on the scoreboard, methodically taking down arguably the top No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
They are not your average No. 14 seed. Entering the tournament, Stephen F. Austin was ranked No. 33 nationally in the KenPom.com rankings, compared to the other No. 14 seeds Fresno State (105th), Green Bay (117th) and Buffalo (130th).
Some folks don’t put a whole lot of stock in those rankings, and that’s okay — like any evaluation system, the stats website is far from perfect.
But even the biggest analytics doubters have to tip their cap on this one, if they watched any of yesterday’s 70-56 win for Underwood’s squad.
How are they ranked so high? They haven’t played hardly any quality teams this year, and lost to the only ones they faced, finishing 0-4 against the KenPom top 150.
But they also won all their conference games by incredible margins, some by 30 or 40 points — just like a top-40 team such as Notre Dame would in a lowly conference like the Southland.
Their biggest identity stat is defensive pressure. Stephen F. Austin ranks No. 1 nationally by forcing turnovers on 26 percent of opponent's possessions, and it backed that up on Friday by picking up 22 takeaways in the triumph over the Mountaineers.
So as if Notre Dame’s top priority for Sunday wasn’t already reducing its turnovers — after committing 18, 17 and 16 in the last three games, respectively — now they must do that against a team that is among the best in the country at forcing them.
Individually, the Lumberjacks feature senior guard Thomas Walkup, who checks in at No. 5 in the country in KenPom’s individual MVP category. He’s averaging 18.0 points, 6.9 rebounds, 4.5 assists and 2.2 steals per game, and shoots 59.0 percent overall from the field.
Walkup shot only 6 of 15 (40.0 percent) from the field against West Virginia, but nailed 19 of 20 free throws to pace the Lumberjacks with 33 points in the victory.
“From an efficiency standpoint, they’re one of the best teams in America,” Underwood said of the Irish. “Everything starts with them at the point guard spot.
“They’ve got an all league performer in Jackson. And it is a different mindset from the standpoint that West Virginia, tremendous full-court defense, and yet from an offensive standpoint, completely different styles and different systems.
“We didn’t see many ball screens last night. Tomorrow night we’ll see ball screens at every angle and coming from different parts of the floor.”
Outlook
Many Notre Dame fans believe they caught a massive break drawing Stephen F. Austin over West Virginia. And given the resumes and talent of both teams, if you were allowed to choose between the two with a Sweet 16 bid on the line, you’d clearly take a matchup with the Lumberjacks.
But the drop-off from WVU to SFA may not be as far as some Irish fans seem to think. Anybody who watched the game in the opening round could see that.
In the end, I’ll side with the Irish. But certainly a number of outcomes either way are on the table.
Prediction: Notre Dame 73, Stephen F. Austin 68.
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