Notre Dame 2015 Data Summary: Defense

Here is the overview of some of the vital 2015 statistics on defense:

Rushing Defense: 72nd — 175.6 Yards Per Game

Since the end of the Lou Holtz era in 1996, this was the second highest single-season total Notre Dame had yielded, behind only the 195.42 figure during the 3-9 meltdown in 2007. What makes it unsettling is the Irish featured an All-American lineman (Sheldon Day) and the Butkus Award winner at linebacker (Jaylon Smith), but it’s further proof of football is a collective team effort, not merely supreme individuals.

In fairness, the Irish played against the nation’s No. 2 and No. 8 rushing offenses in Navy (326.7) and Georgia Tech (256.2), respectively, and did a relatively good job in victories against the triple option. Still those two accounted for 534 rushing yards, which would then bring Notre Dame’s overall average against “conventional” offenses down to 159 rushing yards per game. That would have put it 52nd nationally, just ahead of College Football Playoff participant Oklahoma (161.7). The other three playoff teams were No. 1 (Alabama at 75.7), No. 11 (Michigan State, 116.0) and No. 18 (Clemson, 125.3). Stanford was 30th at 139.9, yet the Irish ran at will with 299 yards on the ground in the 38-36 defeat versus the Cardinal.

Overall, it could have been better, and the absence of nose guard Jarron Jones (MCL injury) throughout the regular season, plus Smith in the bowl game, was a setback.

Pass Efficiency Defense: 57th — 123.96 rating

The 197.1 yards allowed per game ranked a respectable 27th nationally and was an appreciable improvement from the 233.0 a year earlier (the most in nine years at Notre Dame). Clemson’s DeShaun Watson was limited to only 8-of-21 passing in a monsoon, which was one of the highlights of the year on defense.

In the same way that facing two productive triple-option teams skewed the rushing average some, Notre Dame did not really face many veteran and or marquee passers or prolific wideouts. USC’s Cody Kessler did complete 30 of 46 throws for 365 yards in the 41-31 loss to the Irish, but also tossed two interceptions. Stanford’s savvy Kevin Hogan might not have an arm that leaves NFL scouts salivating, but he masterfully carved up the Irish defense (17-of-21 passing for 269 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions) that concentrated on limiting running back Christian McCaffrey, which it did. Ohio State’s J.T. Barrett patiently settled for seven- to 12-yard hitches (19 completions for 211 yards) in a game where, with two starting defensive backs sidelined, the Irish solely emphasized not yielding the over-the-top pass.

What hurt the most was not making the game-shifting plays either with sacks (tied for 75th nationally with 25) or interceptions (tied for 91st with nine). Sacks can be misleading at times, because QB pressures or style of offense have to be taken into account. Yet most of the top teams were prolific, with Alabama ranking third with 53 sacks, Clemson fourth with 48, Oklahoma sixth with 40, Ohio State recording 38 (ninth) and Michigan State 37 (23rd).

Total Defense: 45th — 372.7 Yards Per Game

The good news was that it was an improvement from the school record 404.2 yards per game surrendered last year. The bad is that overall its still well behind the 343.38 average under former defensive coordinator Bob Diaco during his four seasons from 2010-13.

Scoring Defense: 39th — 24.1 Points Per Game

The standard these days for defense in college football is allowing no more than 20 points per game, which only 15 teams achieved. The two preeminent programs, Alabama and Ohio State, allowed 15.1 in 2015, but one of the 15 was UConn under head coach Diaco. We bring that up only because in the four years that Diaco was at Notre Dame from 2010-13, the Irish never ranked lower than 27th in scoring defense, a first at the school over a four-year stretch since 1974-77. The simplified, vanilla defense was often castigated, but it limited explosive plays.

Most distressing about the current stat was that five of the 12 regular season opponents finished 83rd or lower in scoring offense, and two others were 68th (Pitt) and 63rd (Georgia Tech). Combining the veteran look on defense this year (other than at nose guard) and many of the opposition well below average on offense, this area could have been better.

Red-Zone Defense: 43rd with a 80.5 scoring percentage

This can be one of the most misleading stats in football because it doesn’t really tell the story of when it occurred, and is based strictly on scoring either a touchdown or field goal once inside the 20. The Irish actually finished ahead of Alabama and Clemson (tied for 62nd), as well as a third playoff team (Michigan State, 78th), plus Ohio State (46th) and Stanford (95th). Ironically, the worst defense among the playoff teams, Oklahoma, was ranked the highest at 32.

Delving a little deeper into the stats, one must first take into account the percent of touchdowns yielded as opposed to field goals or no points at all. In 2014, Notre Dame was 116th in percentage of touchdowns allowed in the red zone at 70.0 (35 of 50), and this year it wasn’t much better at about 65.9 percent (27 of 41). Most notable is it yielded five touchdowns in five chances in the loss at Stanford, allowed four touchdowns on each of Ohio State’s first four chances in the Fiesta Bowl, and surrendered two touchdowns in three attempts in the defeat at Clemson.

Turnovers Forced: Tied for 109th — 14 (5 Fumbles, 9 Interceptions)

This is probably the most distressing data about Notre Dame’s defense. Supposedly, when Brian VanGorder became the defensive coordinator in 2014 there would be a trade-off. The Irish might potentially allow more big plays than under Diaco, but they also were expected to force much more turnovers and havoc than in the Diaco era. There would be more risk, but also more reward.

Going back to the record books in our office that date back to 1951, we have not found a season where Notre Dame forced fewer turnovers (and that included just 10-game seasons). Michigan State had double at 28, while other top teams such as Alabama, Oklahoma and Iowa had 27. Clemson was at 25. We certainly thought 20 to 25 turnovers could be a realistic goal to shoot for this year. The Irish lost the turnover battle in defeats to Clemson (4-1), Stanford (1-0) and Ohio State (2-1), and only forced one apiece in near upsets by Virginia, Temple and Boston College (where it had a minus-four disparity).

Third-Down Conversion Defense: 32nd — 35.1 Percent

Not bad, going 66 of 188, and the Irish were one of the better three-and-out defenses in the land. However, it closed poorly against two stellar offenses. Stanford was 8 of 12 (66.7 percent) while Ohio State converted 10 of its first 14 attempts (71.4 percent).

SUMMARY

Seldom will a Notre Dame defense have as much all-around experience than in 2015, as it basically returned 10 of 11 starters, even without Jones. The debates are endless about whether the talent level is overhyped, if VanGorder’s scheme is more tailored to the NFL than to college-aged players with much less time to learn, or numerous other theories. Cornerback KeiVarae Russell made two of the most notable plays of the season with late interceptions against USC and Temple, but was more often an enigma after strong freshman and sophomore year performances.

Easily the No. 1 storyline of 2016 will be whether the Irish defense can improve enough, especially in safety and linebacker play, minus Day, Smith and Russell, and have enough game-changers in the lineup to vie for a College Football Playoff berth heading into Thanksgiving weekend again. Finishing outside the top 40 in most major defensive categories is not going to get it done.