Notre Dame By The Numbers In 2016: 10-6
10 Victories in a row Notre Dame amazingly won that were decided by seven points or less in 2012 (5-0) and then into 2013 (winning the first five such contests) — before going 6-7 since then. This included 3-2 last year, with squeaker wins on the road versus Virginia (34-27), Temple (24-20) and Boston College (19-16), and the heartbreaking setbacks to Clemson (24-22) and Stanford (38-36), both of who would finish in the top 5.
The Irish have had 18 such contests the past three years decided by seven points or less, or about six per year — meaning half of the 12-game schedule usually comes down to the closing minutes. It could happen again this year with a slate that might feature Notre Dame as the underdog only once (at USC in the finale), but has about six or so foes that on the right day could pull the upset (at Texas and at North Carolina State, and at home versus Michigan State, Stanford, Miami and Virginia Tech).
To have any shot at the four-team Playoff, Notre Dame needs to go unscathed in those seven-points-or-less outcomes the way it did in 2012, when it advanced to the BCS Championship game. Sustaining such consistency in close encounters always presents a huge hurdle.
9 Games among the 12 in the regular season that will not be played on the opponent’s home field. Notre Dame hosts six home games and has three neutral site outings versus Syracuse (New Jersey), Navy (Jacksonville, Fla.) and Army (San Antonio, Texas). Its lone three on-site campus games on the road are at the beginning (Texas, Sept. 4), the end (USC, Nov. 26) and right in the middle (North Carolina State, Oct. 8).
That has not occurred since head coach Brian Kelly’s first season in 2010 when the lone on-campus road games were at Michigan State, Boston College and USC.
8 Notre Dame is 7-1 in the eight games after bye weeks under Kelly, with a six-game winning streak, including rallying to win at Temple last year. This year’s bye will come the week before hosting a potentially dangerous Miami team led by projected first-round quarterback Brad Kaaya.
One of those six straight week-after-bye wins was a 41-3 thrashing of Miami in 2012, at Chicago’s Soldier Field.
7 This is Year 7 for Kelly, only the sixth full-time coach at Notre Dame out of 15 — starting with Jesse Harper in 1913 — to reach that season. The other five combined for a 47-4-1 record (.913 win percentage) in their seventh year, with Knute Rockne (1924) and Frank Leahy (1949) finishing 10-0 that resulted in consensus national titles, and Ara Parseghian (1970) and Lou Holtz (1992) defeating unbeaten teams in the Cotton Bowl to place No. 2 and No. 4, respectively. Elmer Layden was 7-2 in 1940, leading him to resign after Year 7 to become the NFL’s commissioner.
6 Years Kelly’s contract was extended through this winter, meaning into the 2021 season. If that indeed comes to pass, he would eclipse the 11-year ceiling of Leahy, Parseghian and Holtz, and be one short of Rockne’s school record 13 years from 1918-30.
Two or three years ago, we could not have envisioned Kelly staying that long, and there is no guarantee he will. However, the more we look at his career, the more we see Kelly, who will turn 55 on Oct. 25, having grown into the position and finishing his career with the Irish.
When Kelly arrived here in 2010, the coach we thought his career mirrored the most was former Texas boss Mack Brown (1998-2013). In Brown’s first six seasons at Texas, he was an upgrade over the three previous coaches, but often criticized for not taking the program to an elite level or getting over the proverbial hump. Then in the ensuing six seasons (2004-09) he was 69-9, with five AP Top 10 finishes and a national title.
Stay tuned to see if such appreciable upgrade can continue over the next six seasons under Kelly. A Playoff appearance or two likely would be expected.
Tomorrow: 5 to 1.